Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 13.961426 15.943673 18.071542 20.521368 23.259613 26.221518 29.663272
2025-08-17 10.976617 13.666494 16.772729 20.607588 25.196032 30.490291 37.040456
2025-08-24 9.387614 12.360829 15.958981 20.601621 26.397211 33.354569 42.295609
2025-08-31 8.081091 11.198123 15.133992 20.417364 27.265473 35.777124 47.082795
2025-09-07 7.202148 10.432536 14.663737 20.538793 28.399878 38.459488 52.193236
2025-09-14 6.649013 10.022368 14.587726 21.119287 30.106229 41.902255 58.393843
2025-09-21 5.929278 9.292936 13.992632 20.913779 30.695361 43.848810 62.656701
2025-09-28 5.106058 8.324040 12.966440 20.003171 30.215114 44.277477 64.831727
2025-10-05 4.816420 8.115133 13.002682 20.589896 31.843180 47.643312 71.153708
2025-10-12 4.515397 7.855520 12.933732 20.999706 33.214502 50.683785 77.120420
2025-10-19 4.117426 7.402010 12.528858 20.863441 33.752221 52.529149 81.427256
2025-10-26 3.738164 6.941512 12.072558 20.605476 34.072311 54.044858 85.285229
2025-11-02 3.443123 6.601750 11.791583 20.616034 34.821421 56.256520 90.312205
2025-11-09 3.210203 6.347674 11.629877 20.803182 35.849423 58.925861 96.130256
2025-11-16 2.960315 6.037654 11.346524 20.762087 36.494817 61.014237 101.117528
2025-11-23 2.712915 5.707695 11.001551 20.588682 36.904393 62.736684 105.586698
2025-11-30 2.536183 5.492559 10.837956 20.706765 37.786735 65.221685 111.317626
2025-12-07 2.444185 5.431742 10.943045 21.292953 39.472674 69.045417 119.293237
2025-12-14 2.247398 5.144738 10.613781 21.085431 39.790134 70.653955 123.760978
2025-12-21 1.976678 4.680276 9.918082 20.168391 38.825080 70.103401 124.683330
2025-12-28 1.916514 4.648825 10.041373 20.759319 40.527856 74.043316 133.104740
2026-01-04 1.838711 4.572166 10.070343 21.172122 41.926337 77.513612 140.851025
2026-01-11 1.705523 4.361444 9.818893 21.034861 42.319758 79.278919 145.784453